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Prof. Ken Carslaw, Uni Leeds: "Understanding the sources of uncertainty in global aerosol"
12.06.2012, 16:30
KIT, IMK-TRO, Campus Süd
Gebäude 30.23 Physikhochhaus
Seminarraum 13.OG Zi 30.23
In all IPCC reports the aerosol forcing of climate has the largest uncertainty of any forcing. Almost all of our understanding of aerosol uncertainty derives from the diversity of the models. We know that models differ in their predictions, but we have very little information about which processes are important. I will present a new approach to understanding the uncertainty in a complex global aerosol model, using an emulator. Based on a relatively small number of model runs, emulation allows a full Monte Carlo-type variance-based uncertainty analysis to be undertaken. The standard deviation of any model quantity can be quantified in all grid boxes, including the relative error contributions of all model parameters. I will show results for global CCN and black carbon in terms of 28 uncertain parameters in the GLOMAP model. I will also discuss how observations and such global sensitivity analyses could be used together to constrain model predictions through calibration.

Diese Veranstaltung ist Teil der Reihe Seminar über ausgewählte Themen der Meteorologie
Prof. Ken Carslaw

University of Leeds
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
Kaiserstraße 12
76131 Karlsruhe
E-Mail:doris stenschkeAjo1∂kit edu
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